Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Arenas Drama Likely to Mark Fresh Start for Wizards

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From a fan's standpoint, the obvious is obvious. Gilbert Arenas is a likable buffoon at best, and at worst a tragic Jayson Williams meltdown waiting to happen. Either way you cut it, he's overrated as a player (especially after three knee surgeries), the league's worst contract (roughly $90 million owed for the next four and a half seasons), and an act that has worn thin. Now the man who once told a police officer, "you can't arrest me, I'm a basketball player," could be rung up on felony charges if it's proven he and fellow idiot teammate Javaris Crittenton pointed guns at each other inside the Washington Wizards locker room.

As ugly and damaging this event can be for the NBA, commissioner David Stern acted swiftly and appropriately, suspending Arenas indefinitely and sending the message the league will not tolerate this garbage. As a lifelong NBA fan, I applaud Stern for coming down hard on Arenas, especially considering all of the disgusting behavior pro athletes have engaged in over recent years. Enough is enough--the league does not need you.

So, what does this situation mean for the Wizards? For starters, they can kiss this season goodbye. As much as Arenas is overrated and overpriced, he still puts up nearly 23 points and 7 assists per game, production that isn't that easy to replace. But realistically, after starting the season 11-21, and facing the possibility of going into the most hyped free agency period with nearly no cap space, general manager Ernie Grunfeld is all about dismantling the team right now. If anything, this transgression with Arenas could be a gift from the gods if it means the Wizards can void his contract.

According to the current collective bargaining agreement, a contract can be voided if a player "at any time, fails, refuses, or neglects to conform his personal conduct to standards of good citizenship, good moral character (defined here to mean not engaging in acts of moral turpitude, whether or not such acts would constitute a crime), and good sportsmanship." Whether Arenas gets hit with a few misdemeanors or a felony remains to be seen. Either way, I think Grunfeld has a good case in his favor.

Word is the Wizards have already started shopping Antawn Jamison ($28 million over next two) and Caron Butler ($10.5 for one year). If they can move these guys for expiring deals and void Arenas' contract, the Wizards would enter next season with DeShawn Stevenson (age 28), Andray Blatche (23), Nick Young (24), Javale McGee (21) and roughly $42 million in cap space. That would allow them to throw max deals at LeBron James and Dwyane Wade and still have about $8 million to spend on filling out the roster. Oh yeah, there's also a likely top-five lottery pick in June.

Of course, the Wizards aren't going to only receive expiring deals for Jamison and Butler, but you get the point. They're going to have some young talent on the bench, a top draft pick, and more spending money than any other team in the league. With a few smart moves, the Wizards can easily build a contender for years to come.

Meanwhile, Arenas can work on getting himself together and landing a job elsewhere. Make no mistake, he will play in this league again; just not for the Wizards and not as "Agent Zero" or "Hibachi" or whatever cute name he has for himself.

Monday, January 4, 2010

Where Will Tracy McGrady End Up?

So, Tracy McGrady is finally on the move. Let's look at few potential trade scenarios.

PISTONS
The Pistons cannot deal for McGrady unless another team gets involved or both Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince are included in the deal. Trading both Hamilton and Prince would free up approximately $21 million in cap space, which is great, but what the Pistons really need is help in the post. The only way they deal both Hamilton and Prince is unless Carl Landry is involved. Landry isn't going anywhere.

WARRIORS
Monta Ellis is pretty much a bargain at five years and $55 million, especially when you consider he's seventh in the league in scoring (25 ppg) and only 24 years old. Yeah, he has some issues with Nellie but I think Nellie is really just trying to teach him. Thus far, Ellis has gone above and beyond in trying to show he's a team guy and a potential leader. The Warriors can't really pull a deal for McGrady unless a third team and/or Corey Maggette is involved. Unlikely.

HEAT
The Heat don't really have the contracts to deal for McGrady. They could either deal Jermaine O'Neal straight up or offer a combo consisting of Quentin Richardson, Udonis Haslem and Dorell Wright. Either way, it just doesn't make much sense for either team because of the positions and number of players involved. The Rockets aren't going to risk damaging their chemistry.

HORNETS
The Hornets are in financial trouble and would love to unload some contracts for McGrady, however, no team is crazy enough to take on Peja Stojakovic. Plus, both teams play in the same division. Couldn't you see a McGrady-Chris Paul-David West-Emeka Okafor combo becoming dangerous? I could, and if I'm the Rockets I wouldn't want the NBA's most competitive division getting any stronger.

KINGS
The Kings don't really have any bad contracts with the exception of Andres Nocioni. Hurt or not, Kevin Martin is a steal at $9 million per. Maybe if the Rockets were destined for the draft lottery and included the pick in a deal. Unlikely.

CLIPPERS
Unless Baron Davis AND Marcus Camby are involved, the Clippers don't have the pieces to get a deal done. No chance.

SUNS
The Suns don't have the parts necessary to make a deal work financially. Forget them.

KNICKS
The only way this can be done is if the Knicks include Al Harrington or Danilo Gallinari and the Rockets accept Eddy Curry. I'm sure the Rockets like Chris Duhon, Harrington, and Nate Robinson, but all three of them are walking at year's end. Would the Rockets take a Harrington-Curry offer? Maybe. Getting rid of Curry would free up an additional $10 million in cap space and allow the Knicks to sign two max players. But do the Rockets want a ballhog like Harrington? Eh.

Here are three destinations I think work really well for both teams:

BULLS
For Brad Miller (expiring), Jerome James (expiring) and John Salmons (one year left at $6.5 million). This gives the Rockets what they desperately need, another guard who can score, and the Bulls free up an extra $7 million and put themselves in position to sign a max player. The Rockets could take Miller and Kirk Hinrich—pass-first point unlike Aaron Brooks—instead.

BUCKS
For Michael Redd and cash. The Bucks would basically lose nothing, swapping one scoring guard for another, and free up $17 million in cap space (hello Dwyane Wade). The Rockets would get one of the top shooters in the league. If Redd stays healthy, the Rockets are a contender. If he doesn't, he becomes an expiring contract next season.

SIXERS
With a frontline that features Luis Scola (6-foot-9), Carl Landry (6-foot-9) and Chuck Hayes (6-foot-6), it’s no surprise the Rockets are second to last in blocked shots. The Sixers are dying to get rid of Samuel Dalembert to free up some cash. Do the Rockets take on Dalembert (1 year at $12.2 million remaining after this season) if the Sixers add a future draft pick(s)? Jason Kapono would be included as well, giving the Rockets a perimeter sharpshooter.