It's obviously way too early to do anything but guess where free agents will go next season. However, since the basketball world is curious, let's look at some of the big players, their situations, and take a stab at where they could end up.
LeBron James: Only three teams can really afford him, and none of them are remotely close to contending. In Cleveland, LeBron: has a shot at a ring; can make more money; is close to home (Akron is just down the road)--What else could he want or need? Plus with Shaq's contract expiring and Delonte West looking like he's trade bait, the Cavs have the financial flexibility to pick up a quality part or two. But LeBron is supposed to give all of this up to play for a joke franchise in New York because the bright lights of Times Square will help him become a "global icon?" Newsflash: Michael Jordan wasn't in New York. Neither was Shaq. Tiger Woods isn't. Lance Armstrong? Nope. Peyton Manning? No. David Beckham? Nah. Bill Gates? No. Warren Buffet? No--he's in
Omaha, Nebraska. Oprah? Chicago. We can do this all day; you get the point. When you're the best in your field, the world comes to you.
Verdict: LeBron re-signs with the Cavs.
Dwyane Wade: Unlike LeBron, Wade is really a free agent in every sense of the word. He has no ties to Miami whatsoever. The Heat only have Michael Beasley, Mario Chalmers and Daequan Cook under contract for next season, so they've got much work to do before even talking about contending. Aside from Pat Riley--who always knows what he's doing--there is absolutely nothing tying Wade down to his current situation. If the Bulls can get John Salmons to opt out of his deal, their cap room would jump to just over $18 million, at which point signing Wade, a Chicago native, would become possible. But in the end, the Heat have the front office skill and dedication, and the money to both sign him and add a major piece like Carlos Boozer or Chris Bosh. This is an easy decision.
Verdict: Wade re-signs with the Heat.
Chris Bosh: Bryan Colangelo is one of the best front office executives in the league. He knows Bosh wants out and the Raptors are built for a one-and-done playoff run at best. He also knows the soon-to-be 26-year-old isn't a cornerstone player worth the money (Bosh is in his seventh season and has only sniffed the first round of the playoffs twice). Thus, we should all expect Bosh to be dealt as soon as possible. Possible trade destinations include: Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Houston, Miami, New York, Phoenix, and San Antonio.
Verdict: Bosh goes to the Bulls.
Carlos Boozer: Boozer's time in Utah is up and the Jazz will deal him for something, rather than let him walk for free. Paul Millsap is ready to become the everyday starter and the only thing the Jazz really need is a dynamic scoring guard who can get his own shot and score at the end of games. Some names that make sense are Rip Hamilton, Vince Carter, Devin Harris, Josh Howard, Manu Ginobili, and Michael Redd. Boozer once said he would love to play in Florida (where he lives), however, with his divorce and the rumor his son gets special medical treatment in New Jersey (where Boozer is said to own a home), along with the Nets situation (biggest market, most cap space, plenty of young talent, lottery pick, billionaire owner, new stadium on the horizon) makes me think he's coming to the Northeast.
Verdict: Boozer goes to the Nets.
Joe Johnson: He's in his prime (turns 29 in June), a quality big guard, and on a rising team that could contend for years. The Hawks can offer him more cash than anyone else. So why would he leave? He wouldn't. The real question is whether or not the Hawks want to pay him around $17.5 million per through the next five or six seasons. That's a huge commitment to a player who has never made an All-NBA team and has averaged 17-4-4 on 44% shooting for his career. Knowing he has Jamal Crawford--who can match Johnson's numbers with more minutes on the floor--sitting on the bench and set to make $10.1 million next year, GM Billy Knight will undoubtedly low-ball Johnson and shift his attention to acquiring a point guard and/or lost post scorer.
Verdict: Johnson signs with the Knicks.
Amar'e Stoudemire: Even though he's technically not a free agent-to-be, the word is Stoudemire will opt out of his contract. The Suns shopped him around all summer but couldn't settle on the right deal (Cavaliers, Warriors, Wolves, Celtics and Blazers were all players). Golden State (Andris Biedrins, parts/picks), Portland (Travis Outlaw, parts/picks) and Houston (Tracy McGrady, picks) are intriguing destinations but do the Suns want to deal him within the conference? Miami and Chicago must be the frontrunners, and I'm sure Steve Kerr prefers Michael Beasley to Tyrus Thomas.
Verdict: Stoudemire gets traded to Miami.
David Lee: If he were in their plans for the future, they would have locked him up last summer. Instead they refused to extend his deal and explored trades for him. Lee has to feel slighted. The only way Lee plays in a blue and orange jersey next season is if the Knicks start contract negotiations right now and offer him a deal he can't refuse. I think his chances of returning are slim to none, especially when you consider he might be the best value available in the league right now. Look at these figures:
(note: assumes next season's salary cap at $54 million. Career 36-minute-per stats used).
Lee definitely looks like the fourth-best option out of the bunch, but there's more to the story. These statistics include Lee's first three seasons, in which he came off the bench. Since becoming the everyday starter in 2008, Lee's per-36-minute averages are: 15.6 points and 11.7 rebounds. His per-36-minute averages this season are: 19 points and 11 rebounds.
Perhaps the most remarkable aspect of Lee's nearly 20-and-10 status is the fact he averages (including free throws) fewer than 18 shot attempts per game. Boozer and Stoudemire average 20. Bosh is around 27.
Look, I'm not saying Lee is better than these guys, but rather he's comparable when variables like age, durability, production and cost are considered. If you're a GM, do you spend, say, $60 million over five years for Lee, or $100 million over six for Boozer, Bosh or Stoudemire? $40 more million for five more points per game and a more marketable name? Needless to say, many teams will be interested in Lee's value.
Verdict: (your guess is as good as mine--he could go anywhere from Miami to Portland).
For all the noise made about Lebron and Wade, this free agent class is more about guys like Lee, and to a lesser extent Travis Outlaw, Luis Scola and so on--players who represent the last important piece to the puzzle. Surely, people will ooh and aah when a name like Joe Johnson lands on the Knicks, but the true quality free agent moves will involve not the big names but rather the best fits for those teams on the cusp of winning it all. You wonder, "What if the Knicks get LeBron?" I wonder, "What if the Thunder get David Lee?"
We'll come back to this post throughout the season as more information and rumors materialize.
