And this, my friends, has been the message fed to you over and over again by reporters who either lack the ability to be anything other than stenographers, or are getting slipped some cash under the table to create hype. Why hype? Well, let's see--an NBA referee fixed games and recently wrote a book saying the practice was prevalent amongst league officials (and we all believe it). The league had to borrow $200 million to distribute bailout money to 12 needy teams. Oh yeah, there's also a lockout on the horizon (2011). Really, is it just a coincidence that for the first time in 20 years, a franchise (
The league is in transition and David Stern wants fans to believe everything is gravy, and there's a plan, the very same way the buffoons running the Knicks insist pissing seasons away is a step back to take two steps forward. And the media is in on it too. Just two weeks ago I heard Stephen A. Smith say on ESPN Radio's "Michael Kay Show" how he was 100% sure King James would be a Knick next year. I found it funny how Smith didn't offer up his reasoning and Kay didn't bother to ask any questions.
Anyhow, I'm going to share with you the real scoop on next summer's free agent class. We'll talk about who's available, where guys will end up, and exactly which teams are in a good position to improve for next season.
First, let's look at a list of the top names that could potentially be available:
-Joe Johnson
-Paul Pierce
-Ray Allen
-Tyson Chandler
-LeBron James
-Shaquille O'Neal
-Josh Howard
-Dirk Nowitzki
-Kenyon Martin
-Anthony Morrow
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-Tracy McGrady
-Carl Landry
-Luis Scola
-Marcus Camby
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-Jermaine O'Neal
-Dwyane Wade
-Michael Redd
-Rudy Gay
-David Lee
-Al Harrington
-Grant Hill
-A'mare Stoudemire
-Travis Outlaw
-Manu Ginobili
-Richard Jefferson
-Chris Bosh
-Carlos Boozer
-Allen Iverson
Looks impressive, right? Now, let's start to pare down the list, getting rid of each player who meets any of the following criteria:
1. Old, past his prime or broken down: Allen, Shaq, Ken. Martin, McGrady, Camby, J. O'Neal, Hill, Iverson.
2. Restricted free agent (current team can match any offer): Morrow, Landry, and Gay.
3. Team holds option to keep or release player: J. Howard and Landry (he's really not going anywhere).
4. Player is under contract but can opt out: Pierce,
5. Player is franchise iconic and will re-sign if and when his contract expires: Pierce, Nowitzki,
That cuts our list down to:
-Joe Johnson
-LeBron James
-Luis Scola
-Dwyane Wade
-David Lee
-Al Harrington
-Travis Outlaw
-Chris Bosh
-Carlos Boozer
This is what your amazing free agent class really looks like.
Now, ask yourself this very important question. How many of the players listed above are franchise-carrying, build-a-team-around, take-you-to-the-promised-land superstars? I count two: James (MVP) and Wade (Finals MVP). The rest vary from good to elite role players in comparison... sidekicks. And these sidekicks are going to be looking for max money--$100 million deals.
Which teams can actually afford to sign these guys? Here are the seven teams expected to have double-digit cap room for next season (in millions):
7.
6.
5:
4.
3.
2.
1.
Now, it doesn't take a mathematician to figure out that it is impossible for a team with $25 million in cap space to sign two $17-plus million-per-year players. The Nets, Knicks and Heat can sign one big-time player and then one, maybe two quality sidepieces. But no team is going to sign two of the above names. However, this is not what sportswriters are telling us. They keep selling us nonsense on how LeBron and Wade might play together when in fact it's not even possible.
So where will these free agents end up? We'll talk about that more in Part II.
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